2016 Michigan Primary Predictions

Using the Monte Carlo techniques I have described in earlier posts, I ran several simulations today to try to predict who will win the 2016 Michigan primaries. Here is what I found:

For the Republican primaries, I predict:

Trump: 89.64% chance of winning

Cruz: 5.01% chance of winning

Kasich: 3.29% chance of winning

Rubio: 2.06% chance of winning

The following plot is a histogram of the simulations:

trumpRepubs

 

 

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ikjyotsinghkohli24

Sikh, Theoretical and Mathematical Physicist, main research in the structure and dynamics of Einstein's field equations.

7 thoughts on “2016 Michigan Primary Predictions”

    1. I don’t understand why. The economy is booming, 30 million more people have health care, the U.S. reputation around the world has greatly improved, this is just Trump effecting the villager mentality. It’s very, very unfortunate. He has no plans, has not given a single constructive idea or figure of how any of his stuff will work, and says the most absurd things when he does try to give a plan. These primary elections are proof that in fact, voting should not be a right, but a responsibility, that which requires education and knowledge of the actual facts, and not just stupid rhetoric.

      1. Look if you are libertards, sicular or political correct then what we have is heaven. The only thing missing is Sharia. I hope you know that. So there is no way you are going to listen me. And if you are not then there is no need for me to explain it to you.

      2. Don’t retort with insults. What are specifically Trump’s policies with respect to:

        1. Economic plans, taxation percentages, etc…

        2. Defense budgets, middle class spending programs, education, etc…

        3. How does Trump plan to improve upon the health care situation in America?

        Herman Cain at least gave his 9-9-9 plan, where are Trump’s facts/figures/numbers? I’m waiting.

      3. Sorry , I am not attacking you. My anger is directed towards those who wants to “change” culture-face of America. And insulting them is the least thing I can do to them. I would love to beat shit of them.
        Any way, regarding your policies concern I may agree that Trump may not have given satisfactory answers. In that case , choose Bernie Sanders , but please don’t say , “Trump is idiot” ” His followers are too”. Because if you choose later , people like me are going to forget about “please” “could” “sorry” and will tore everyone into pieces who want to stop this moment. Thanks.

  1. We have seen the likes of Trumps followers before…they wore brown shirts, and named accordingly.
    I found this characterization interesting in that it came to my attention first while visiting Russia in the Dec Jan time-frame. That was before the Trumps started rolling. As an acquaintance reminded me, the German army was less than 70 klics from her home – she has seen this all before. But she (and others) feel one should be more concerned because those forces, economical, etc. are so different. But, she and every other Russian I met used the same word(s)- brownshirts.

    BTW: their view of Pres O is, of course, different from that portrayed by rt wing radio – they him as the greatest challenge to Putin because of his “intelligent” use of force. Granted, a limited sample, but consistent.

  2. We have seen the likes of Trumps followers before…they wore brown shirts, and named accordingly.
    I found this characterization interesting in that it came to my attention first while visiting Russia in the Dec Jan time-frame. … and that was before Trump really started rolling.

    As an acquaintance there reminded me, the German army was less than 70 klics from her home – she has seen this all before. But she (and others) feel one should be more concerned because those forces, economical, etc. were so different (as you sighted). But, she and every other Russian I met used the same word(s)- brownshirts.

    BTW: their view of Pres O is, of course, different from that portrayed by rt wing radio – they him as the greatest challenge to Putin because of his “intelligent” use of force. Granted, a

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