Elections Mathematics Politics Statistics

Optimal Strategies for the Clinton/Trump Debate

Consider modelling the Clinton/Trump debate via a static game in which each candidate can choose between two strategies: , where denotes predominantly “attacking” the other candidate, while denotes predominantly discussing policy positions. Further, let us consider the mixed strategies for Clinton, and for Trump. That is, Clinton predominantly attacks Trump with probability , and Trump predominantly […]

Elections Mathematics Physics Politics Science Statistics

Protected: Physics, Data, and The 2016 US Elections

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Data Analytics Data Science Elections Mathematics Politics

2016 Michigan Primary Predictions

Using the Monte Carlo techniques I have described in earlier posts, I ran several simulations today to try to predict who will win the 2016 Michigan primaries. Here is what I found: For the Republican primaries, I predict: Trump: 89.64% chance of winning Cruz: 5.01% chance of winning Kasich: 3.29% chance of winning Rubio: 2.06% […]

Data Analytics Data Science education Elections Mathematics Politics Statistics

The Effect of Individual State Election Results on The National Election

A short post by me today. I wanted to look at the which states are important in winning the national election. Looking at the last 14 presidential elections, I generated the following correlation plot:    For those not familiar with how correlation plots work, the number bar on the right-hand-side of the graph indicates the […]