Consider modelling the Clinton/Trump debate via a static game in which each candidate can choose between two strategies: , where denotes predominantly “attacking” the other candidate, while denotes predominantly discussing policy positions. Further, let us consider the mixed strategies for Clinton, and for Trump. That is, Clinton predominantly attacks Trump with probability , and Trump predominantly […]
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Using the Monte Carlo techniques I have described in earlier posts, I ran several simulations today to try to predict who will win the 2016 Michigan primaries. Here is what I found: For the Republican primaries, I predict: Trump: 89.64% chance of winning Cruz: 5.01% chance of winning Kasich: 3.29% chance of winning Rubio: 2.06% […]
A short post by me today. I wanted to look at the which states are important in winning the national election. Looking at the last 14 presidential elections, I generated the following correlation plot: For those not familiar with how correlation plots work, the number bar on the right-hand-side of the graph indicates the […]