It has certainly become the talk of the town with some of the latest polls showing that Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical 2016 matchup.
I decided to run my polling algorithm to simulate 100,000 election matchups between Clinton and Trump. I calibrated my model using a variety of data sources.
These were the results:
Based on these simulations, I conclude that:
I think in the era of the 24-hour news cycle, too much is made of one poll.
A great deal of noise has been made in the previous weeks about the surge in the polls of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. This has led some people to question whether Hillary Clinton will actually end up being the Democratic party nominee in 2016. This was further evidenced by the fact that Sanders is now leading Clinton in the latest New Hampshire polls.
However, running an analysis on current polling data, I still believe that even though it is very early, Hillary Clinton still has the best chance of being the Democratic party nominee. In fact, running some algorithms against the current data, I found that:
Hillary Clinton: chance of winning Democratic nomination.
Bernie Sanders: chance of winning Democratic nomination.
These numbers were deduced from an algorithm that used non-parametric methods to obtain the following probability density functions.
Thanks to Hargun Singh Kohli for data compilation and research.