The Probability of An Illegal Immigrant Committing a Crime In The United States

Trump has once again put The U.S. on the world stage this time at the expense of innocent children whose families are seeking asylum. The Trump administration’s justification is that:

 

“They want to have illegal immigrants pouring into our country, bringing with them crime, tremendous amounts of crime.”

 

I decided to try to analyze this statement quantitatively. Indeed, one can calculate the probability that an illegal immigrant will commit a crime within The United States as follows. Let us denote crime (or criminal) by C, while denoting illegal immigrant by ii. Then, by Bayes’ theorem, we have:

\boxed{P(C | ii) = \frac{P(ii | C) P(c)}{P(ii)}}

It is quite easy to find data associated with the various factors in this formula. For example, one finds that

  1. P(ii |c) = 0.21
  2. P(c) = 0.02
  3. P(ii) = 0.037

Putting all of this together, we find that:

P(C|ii) = 0.1135 = 11.35 \%

That is, the probability that an illegal immigrant will commit a crime (of any type) while in The United States is a very low 11.35%.

 

Therefore, Trump’s claim of “tremendous amounts of crime” being brought to The United States by illegal immigrants is incorrect.

 

Note that, the numerical factors used above were obtained from:

  1. https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/departments-justice-and-homeland-security-release-data-incarcerated-aliens-94-percent-all
  2. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/aug/1/immigrants-22-percent-federal-prison-population/
  3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United_States

 

 

 

Advertisements

Hillary Clinton Still Has the Best Chance of Being The Democratic Party Nominee in 2016

A great deal of noise has been made in the previous weeks about the surge in the polls of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. This has led some people to question whether Hillary Clinton will actually end up being the Democratic party nominee in 2016. This was further evidenced by the fact that Sanders is now leading Clinton in the latest New Hampshire polls.

However, running an analysis on current polling data, I still believe that even though it is very early, Hillary Clinton still has the best chance of being the Democratic party nominee. In fact, running some algorithms against the current data, I found that:

Hillary Clinton: \boxed{99.9 \%} chance of winning Democratic nomination.

Bernie Sanders: \boxed{0.01\%} chance of winning Democratic nomination.

These numbers were deduced from an algorithm that used non-parametric methods to obtain the following probability density functions. 

clintonsanders

Thanks to Hargun Singh Kohli for data compilation and research.