By: Dr. Ikjyot Singh Kohli The conventional wisdom by the political pundits/analysts who are seeking to explain Joe Biden’s massive win in the 2020 South Carolina primary is that Jim Clyburn’s endorsement was the sole reason why Biden won. (Here is just one article describing this.) I wanted to analyze the data behind this and […]

# Tag: Democrats

By: Dr. Ikjyot Singh Kohli Election season is upon us again, and a number of people from political analysts to campaign advisors are making a huge deal about winning the Iowa caucuses. This seems to be the standard “wisdom”. I decided to run some analysis on the data to see if it was true. I […]

In recent days, Donald Trump proposed yet another iteration of his immigration policy which is focused on “Keeping America Safe” as part of his plan to “Make America Great Again!”. In this latest iteration, in addition to suspending visas from countries with terrorist ties, he is also proposing introducing an ideological test for those entering […]

Here are some thoughts on the US GDP based on some data I’ve been looking at recently, mostly motivated by some Donald Trump supporters that have been criticizing President Obama’s record on the GDP and the economy. First, analyzing the real GDP’s average growth per year, we obtain that (based on a least squares regression […]

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

Using the Monte Carlo techniques I have described in earlier posts, I ran several simulations today to try to predict who will win the 2016 Michigan primaries. Here is what I found: For the Republican primaries, I predict: Trump: 89.64% chance of winning Cruz: 5.01% chance of winning Kasich: 3.29% chance of winning Rubio: 2.06% […]

A short post by me today. I wanted to look at the which states are important in winning the national election. Looking at the last 14 presidential elections, I generated the following correlation plot: For those not familiar with how correlation plots work, the number bar on the right-hand-side of the graph indicates the […]

Update: March 16, 2018: I have received quite a few comments about my critique of Volokh’s WaPo article, and just as a summary of my reply back to those comments: The main point that I made and demonstrated below is that the concept of a correlation is only useful as a measure of linearity between […]

It has certainly become the talk of the town with some of the latest polls showing that Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical 2016 matchup. I decided to run my polling algorithm to simulate 100,000 election matchups between Clinton and Trump. I calibrated my model using a variety of data sources. These were […]