Basketball Mathematics NBA Statistics

When is it optimal to shoot a 3-Point Shot

A very interesting result: computing payoffs of players, the following is a diagram that shows when it is optimal for a player to shoot a 2 point or a 3-point shot. One sees that it is hardly ever optimal for a player to shoot a 3-point shot, since the region corresponding to 3-point optimality is quite narrow. This can be interpreted as saying that for a 3-point attempt to be optimal, a player’s 2PT% must be roughly equal to his/her 3PT%, which is certainly not the case for the vast majority of even designated 3-point shooters in the NBA!

The grey region is where shooting a 3-point shot is optimal, the blue region is where shooting a 2-point shot is optimal, and the red line that separates these boundaries is where the payoff is equivalent in both approaches.

By Dr. Ikjyot Singh Kohli

Sikh, Theoretical and Mathematical Physicist, main research in the structure and dynamics of Einstein's field equations.

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