NBA 2024-2025 Win Predictions

Below, are the predicted NBA team wins for the 2024-2025 seasons (within a margin of error of +/- 5 wins) based on our novel ML algorithm to predict team wins.

We collected over 20 years of NBA team data and applied advanced nonparametric, nonlinear models to uncover the relationship between various performance indicators and a team’s total wins. In mathematical terms, we estimate an unknown function that maps team-level statistics to an expected number of victories, where  is learned by minimizing a loss function . We further evaluated each model’s performance using standard metrics like the root mean squared error, ​. To gauge whether simpler, linear techniques might suffice, we also compared regularized regression models (e.g., those minimizing L1 or L2 loss (link for an interesting physics-based interpretation) against the more flexible nonlinear approach to identify the best predictive method.

Updated: January 15, 2025 – Based on our novel mathematical prediction model.

Team	Predicted Wins (+/- 5)
OKC	58
CLE	57
DEN	52
NYK	51
MEM	51
BOS	50
HOU	49
IND	46
DAL	46
MIA	45
MIL	45
PHO	45
POR	44
SAC	44
CHI	43
MIN	42
LAC	42
LAL	39
SAS	39
DET	38
GSW	38
ORL	35
UTA	33
TOR	29
ATL	27
PHI	26
BRK	25
CHO	23
WAS	20
NOP	20

Updated: Dec 31, 2024:

Team	Predicted Wins (+/- 5)
CLE	55
MEM	54
DAL	51
OKC	51
NYK	50
BOS	49
DEN	49
MIL	48
LAC	48
LAL	47
IND	46
POR	45
SAC	44
HOU	44
MIA	41
MIN	41
PHO	41
SAS	39
GSW	38
ORL	37
ATL	37
CHI	37
DET	34
UTA	32
TOR	31
PHI	30
CHO	24
NOP	23
BRK	22
WAS	19

Below, are the predicted NBA team wins for the 2024-2025 seasons (within a margin of error of +/- 5 wins) based on our novel ML algorithm to predict team wins.

Updated: Dec 27, 2024 (Based on mean predicted wins, the top 5 teams are evidently CLE, DAL, OKC, NYK, and MEM).

Team	Predicted Wins (+/- 5)
CLE	56
DAL	56
OKC	54
NYK	53
MEM	53
MIL	52
BOS	51
DEN	50
POR	47
SAC	47
HOU	47
MIA	43
IND	43
MIN	43
GSW	43
PHO	43
LAC	42
CHI	40
SAS	40
ORL	39
LAL	39
ATL	31
DET	30
PHI	29
UTA	29
BRK	26
TOR	25
CHO	24
WAS	19
NOP	16