Trump has once again put The U.S. on the world stage this time at the expense of innocent children whose families are seeking asylum. The Trump administration’s justification is that: “They want to have illegal immigrants pouring into our country, bringing with them crime, tremendous amounts of crime.” I decided to try to […]

# Tag: Donald Trump

Today, The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) surpassed the 20,000 mark for the first time in history. At the time of the writing of this posting (12:31 PM on January 25), it is actually 20,058.29, so, I am not sure if it will close above 20,000 points, but, nevertheless, a lot of people are crediting this […]

An interesting machine learning problem: Can one figure out the relationship between the popular vote margin, voter turnout, and the percentage of electoral college votes a candidate wins? Going back to the election of John Quincy Adams, the raw data looks like this: Electoral College Party Popular vote Margin (%) Turnout Percentage of EC John […]

Consider modelling the Clinton/Trump debate via a static game in which each candidate can choose between two strategies: , where denotes predominantly “attacking” the other candidate, while denotes predominantly discussing policy positions. Further, let us consider the mixed strategies for Clinton, and for Trump. That is, Clinton predominantly attacks Trump with probability , and Trump predominantly […]

In recent days, Donald Trump proposed yet another iteration of his immigration policy which is focused on “Keeping America Safe” as part of his plan to “Make America Great Again!”. In this latest iteration, in addition to suspending visas from countries with terrorist ties, he is also proposing introducing an ideological test for those entering […]

Using the Monte Carlo techniques I have described in earlier posts, I ran several simulations today to try to predict who will win the 2016 Michigan primaries. Here is what I found: For the Republican primaries, I predict: Trump: 89.64% chance of winning Cruz: 5.01% chance of winning Kasich: 3.29% chance of winning Rubio: 2.06% […]

It has certainly become the talk of the town with some of the latest polls showing that Donald Trump is leading Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical 2016 matchup. I decided to run my polling algorithm to simulate 100,000 election matchups between Clinton and Trump. I calibrated my model using a variety of data sources. These were […]