Game 2 of CLE vs GSW Breakdown

As usual, here is the post-game breakdown of Game 2 of the NBA Finals between Cleveland and Golden State. Using my live-tracking app to track the relevant factors (as explained in previous posts) here are the live-captured time series:

Computing the correlations between each time series above and the Golden State Warriors point difference, we obtain:

One sees once again that the most relevant factors to GSW’s point difference in the game was CLE’s personal fouls during the game, GSW’s personal fouls during the game, and not far behind, GSW 3-point percentage during the game. What is interesting is that one can see the importance of these variables played out in real time matching the two graphs above.

In fact, looking at the personal fouls vs. GSW point difference in real time (essentially taking a subset of the time series graph above), we obtain:



An Analysis of The 2015 NBA Finals Matchup

The NBA finals are exactly five days away, and I wanted to present an analysis breaking down the matchup between The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers.

I used machine and statistical learning techniques to generate the most probable scenarios for the outcome of each game, and this is what I found.


Note that the probabilities listed above are not the probabilities for a team to win a specific game, they are the probabilities of a specific scenario occurring. Also, multiple scenarios can occur in a single game, so the probability of multiple scenarios occurring would be the sum of the individual ones. 

The Model Results So Far (Updated: June 11, 2015)

Game 1: Scenario Outcomes: 1 and 2 – GSW win

Game 2: Scenario Outcome: 9 – CLE win

Game 3: Scenario Outcomes: 5, 8 – CLE win

Thoughts so far: Despite GSW being down right now 2-1, I still believe that Cleveland’s wins were statistical anomalies. Cleveland’s Game 2 and Game 3 wins according to our model only had 1.07%, 9.34%, and 1.765% chances of occurring in this series. Whereas, the GSW Game 1 win had a 44% chance of occurring in this series.

Game 4: Scenario Outcome: 2 – GSW win

Updated: June 14, 2015

Game 5: Scenario Outcomes: 1,2 – GSW win

Thoughts: All of GSW wins have been the dominant scenarios in this series, i.e., Outcomes 1 and 2. All of CLE wins in this series have been statistical anomalies/outliers. This pattern continued in Game 5.

Updated: June 17, 2015

Game 6: Scenario Outcomes: 1,2 – GSW win

Another GSW win through the dominant scenarios in the series, as expected.