What are the factors behind Golden State’s and Cleveland’s Wins in The NBA Finals

As I write this, Cleveland just won the series 4-3. What was behind each team’s wins and losses in this series?

First, Golden State: A correlation plot of their per game predictor variables versus the binary win/loss outcome is as follows: 


The key information is in the last column of this matrix: 


Evidently, the most important factors in GSW’s winning games were Assists, number of Field Goals made, Field Goal percentage, and steals. The most important factors in GSW losing games this series were number of three point attempts per game (Imagine that!), and number of personal fouls per game. 

Now, Cleveland: A correlation plot of their per game predictor variables versus the binary win/loss outcome is as follows: 


The key information is in the last column of this matrix: 


Evidently, the most important factor in CLE’s wins was their number of defensive rebounds. Following behind this were number of three point shots made, and field goal percentage. There were some weak correlations between Cleveland’s losses and their number of offensive rebounds and turnovers. 

Note that these results are essentially a summary analysis of previous blog postings which tracked individual games. For example, here , here and a first attempt here. 

Game 2 of CLE vs GSW Breakdown

As usual, here is the post-game breakdown of Game 2 of the NBA Finals between Cleveland and Golden State. Using my live-tracking app to track the relevant factors (as explained in previous posts) here are the live-captured time series:


Computing the correlations between each time series above and the Golden State Warriors point difference, we obtain:


One sees once again that the most relevant factors to GSW’s point difference in the game was CLE’s personal fouls during the game, GSW’s personal fouls during the game, and not far behind, GSW 3-point percentage during the game. What is interesting is that one can see the importance of these variables played out in real time matching the two graphs above.

In fact, looking at the personal fouls vs. GSW point difference in real time (essentially taking a subset of the time series graph above), we obtain:

graph_1gswgme2

Game 1 of CLE vs GSW Breakdown

Using my live tracking app combined with the relevant factors based on this previous work, here is my breakdown of what contributed to the Warriors win in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. 

First, here is the time series graph of several predictor variables: 

Breaking this down a bit further, we have: 


Computing the correlations, we obtain: 


For the graphically inclined: 

One sees that the predictor variable correlated most positively with the Warriors’ lead was the number of fouls Cleveland committed. Therefore, evidently, the most important factor in GSW winning Game 1 was the rate and number of fouls committed by Cleveland during the game. 

Some Thoughts On Howard Beck’s Bleacher Report Article

Howard Beck had an interesting article today on Bleacher Report, basically suggesting that the NBA finals, in particular, the current style of play embodied by The Golden State Warriors is somehow a vindication of D’Antoni’s basketball philosophies: “Shoot a lot of threes”, “Shoot in 7 seconds or less”, “Play small lineups”, etc…

While the Warriors have certainly embodied some of these philosophies, my personal opinion is that D’Antoni’s style of play can only be vindicated if there is a clear trend in championship teams that reflect these philosophies. As I show below, this is simply not the case.

I looked at the last 15 NBA Champions (from 2000-2014), and tried to see if there were any clear patterns in common between the teams. This is essentially what I found:

nbarankings15yrs

Two things that are immediately clear are:

1. There is very little that championship teams have in common!

2. The overwhelming thing that they do have in common is that 14 of the last 15 NBA champions have all been ranked in the Top 10 for Defensive Rating, something that Mike D’Antoni’s coaching philosophy has never really included throughout his years in Phoenix, New York, and Los Angeles.

This, I believe is the grand point that no one seems to be interested in making, perhaps, because according to the “mainstream”, defensive-oriented basketball, which, by definition is “less-flashy” still is the overwhelming common characteristic amongst championship-winning teams. 

Perhaps, the Warriors will win this year, but as I said above, I do not believe that one year is anywhere near enough to establish a trend and a vindication of D’Antoni’s basketball philosophies.

Further, there were some other things in Beck’s article that I found to be a bit concerning:

He claimed Today, coaches speak enthusiastically about “positionless” basketball—whereas 10 years ago, D’Antoni had to sell Marion and Stoudemire on the concept.”

This is not actually true. The triangle offense is the de facto example of “positionless” basketball, and has been around since the 1940s when Sam Barry introduced it at USC. Phil Jackson and Tex Winter’s Bulls and Lakers teams embodied the concept of positionless basketball. In fact, as can be seen from the diagram below (taken from http://khamel83.tripod.com/intro.htm), players don’t have set positions in the triangle offense. Rather, there are regions based on optimality and spacing:

triangle_spots357x350Many examples can be found from teams playing in the triangle offense system of guards posting up, big men coming out to shoot threes, etc…