Using my live tracking app combined with the relevant factors based on this previous work, here is my breakdown of what contributed to the Warriors win in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
First, here is the time series graph of several predictor variables:
Breaking this down a bit further, we have:
One sees that the predictor variable correlated most positively with the Warriors’ lead was the number of fouls Cleveland committed. Therefore, evidently, the most important factor in GSW winning Game 1 was the rate and number of fouls committed by Cleveland during the game.